Storm season 2021

[David]

Looks like Elsa will be traveling near me and Bob (and Gene, Joe, Jeff and Shane) around the middle of next week. Slated to be a TS at that time and hopefully will not strengthen at all after it gets downgraded from a Cat 1. Moving along at a fast clip right now of 28mph. Hopefully that speed stays up. If a storm is moving fast, has higher pressure, top wind shear and/or goes over land with mountains it tends to stay weaker.

I'm checking over my batteries now, making sure everything is charged up. Need to become familiar with the new radio I purchases as well. Could come in quite useful if the power goes out. Food and water are up to snuff.

Current:

Cat 1 with wind speeds 75mph.
Moving WNW at 28mph.
Pressure 995mb

[Bmyers]

Will the new house be in a position to withstand either the TS or hurricane?

[tom mac]

Don't forget some tarps... just in case.

[David]

Will the new house be in a position to withstand either the TS or hurricane?

That’s a good question. The walls are all reinforced but as of right now there is no garage door. Nor are the windows set up for hurricane shutters. That could potentially be a problem if wind gets in and takes the roof off. This storm is weakening though so should not be an issue.

[David]

The system is falling apart now that it's hitting the high mountains of the islands. Same thing will happen when it hits the mountains in Cuba. That's a good thing for them as it will be a rain-maker and good for us as well. Storm is still zipping along as well which keeps it weak.

Current:

Dropped down to a TS
WNW at 29mph
Pressure 999mb

[Bmyers]

Hopefully it will weaken enough not to create any damage to the house.

[David]

Hopefully it will weaken enough not to create any damage to the house.

Looks like it won't be an issue thankfully. Currently the winds are down to 60mph, pressure has increased to 1009 mb (which is good). It's down to 13mph BUT it's going to get busted up going over the mountains in Cuba. This is good for the Cubians as well. Should be over or near our area by Tuesday. I'd like to see it pick up movement speed as the faster it goes the less chance to develop. All current forecasts is to still be a TS when it makes U.S. landfall.

Now for us the thing to watch is if it makes landfall north or south of Tampa Bay. That determines whether water will be pushed into or taken out of the Bay. It really is a bizarre thing. One of the storms we had several years ago took water out of the Bay. Coming home over the causeway was surreal. Where there was normally ocean water was dry land going out the length of several football fields. You could literally walk on dry ground where you normally see people jet ski and boat. Can be very dangerous as the water can come back very quickly and fill up that area so if your several hundred yards off shore you can get caught by the water rushing back in before you could make it to land.

[David]

Current:

65mph
Moving NW at 14pmh
Pressure is 1006mb

It's moving over Cuba today. The middle and western parts of the island do have mountain ranges from 1000 ft to just over 3000 ft. About half the height of the mountain ranges on the eastern/southern end of the island. So the mountains will weaken the storm, not as much as if it traveled over the eastern end of the island. We'll likely see by tomorrow how much it weakened the storm. This is of benefit to the Cubans as well in that they are only facing a TS. And it's forecast to remain a TS at most when it makes landfall here in the U.S.

The right side of the track has in near me, Bob, Shane and Gene. The middle and left side of the track has it going over Joe (Ghost).

[David]

Current:

Wind at 60mph
Moving NNW at 10mph
Pressure at 1007mb

So the speed of the storm is way down from a couple of days ago, but the wind speed has stayed at TS levels which is very good. Pressure remains high which is also good. It will be just south of Tampa Bay by this evening. If it stays on it's current track it will be taking water out of Tampa Bay this evening but putting it in over night. Shouldn't be that big of a deal however, thankfully.

So storm surge won't be that big of a deal but the rain fall could be for some folks in low lying areas. The last couple of weeks or so have seen a lot of heavy rain fall which is typical for this time of year.

[David]

It's trying to strengthen a bit, may be a weak Cat 1 by the time it's over our area. The upper level winds are in the Cat 1 range but are not making it to the surface which is very good. Lots of dry air also getting sucked into it from the west which is good. We've already had one small squall with another one inbound. It will be past us by morning.

We 'might' see wind gusts in the 60's here and there tonight.