The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s

[aerynsun]

A depression is a real possibility.

It is a complicated subject. But people losing their jobs is not only bad for them. When they lose their job they stop spending. Then others lose their jobs, causing a downward spiral.

The key is the velocity of money. When people spend, the money they spend flows through the economy several times. Too many times, equals inflation, too few times equals deflation.

We are not over Covid 19. The USA may not close down again BUT parts might and fear will keep others home and not spending.

S. Korea closes down again!

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus ... story.html


https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... ni-2020-04

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=th ... &FORM=VIRE

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/velocity.asp

[Bmyers]

The faith in economy can make or break if we go into this deep. I think the 2020 elections will determine if we go into a full blown rescission/depression or if we will head into a recovery.

Sadly between the media and the politics, they are doing their best to destroy America confidence.

[David]

I firmly believe that we will neither go into a depression or a recession. I believe the economy will rebound better than it did previously.

I also believe, probably in Trump's second term that he will move us back to the gold standard and finish demolishing the Federal Reserve Bank.

[bdcochran]

I agree with David that there will not be a depression or a recession. The economy will rebound like a natural disaster happened.
I would hope that we would go back to a gold standard. However, I don't see it in the cards.

My city and county are closed down. However. In anticipation of some opening next week, the morons have already taken to the road - speeding/running red lights. Traffic is near normal - freeways closing down because of accidents.

The people who have a life style wherein they voluntarily live pay check to pay check (we have to have {fill in the blank -cell phone, second car, Mexican vacation, music concert tickets]) will simply have more unpaid debt. The preppers will review their preps since January 2020 and adjust.

[Bob]

When people who work at banks and construction companies lose their jobs - that is bad for everyone.

When waiters and waitresses and hair cutters are on hold...that's barely a blip in the economy.

[bdcochran]

In 2008, I could see whole industrial parks and housing developments affected by the downturn. Despite the political rhetoric about "shovel ready jobs", nothing was done to help the little guy.

Thus far, I am seeing accelerated closings of major retailers who were already failing quite badly. I am also seeing vacancy signs on former mom-and-pop businesses, but not at the level of 2008.

The retail is changing at an accelerated rate. 15 years ago, I shifted from paying by check or cash to credit card. Now I write about 15 checks a year. I shifted from driving to the store and home at a federal government calculated rate of cost of $.55 a mile to buying on line. Nearly 1800 transactions on eBay alone. The mall stores focused fashion for teenagers in clothes and shoes. So, I order on line. Why should I go to a store, buy a gift, stand in line at the post office and pay a high shipping cost when I can order on line and have an item delivered cheaply.

I am not alone. I haven't used Uber. I see 40 year olds doing it instead of paying over $100 a month for a parking space locally in an apartment parking lot or $20 plus to park a car downtown for a few hours.

[Bob]

I firmly believe that we will neither go into a depression or a recession. I believe the economy will rebound better than it did previously.

I also believe, probably in Trump's second term that he will move us back to the gold standard and finish demolishing the Federal Reserve Bank.

Again - Trump is a very smart, but limited entity. He is not Superman.

The Fed could give a flip what he does. And if he is smart, he will stay out of their way. Business is business.

[Bob]

I firmly believe that we will neither go into a depression or a recession. I believe the economy will rebound better than it did previously.

I also believe, probably in Trump's second term that he will move us back to the gold standard and finish demolishing the Federal Reserve Bank.

Yeah - I hear "Depression" talk, but when it is because of a temporary thing, that was enforced, etc...not a Depression event. A very short acute pain, no doubt. Much longer to recover than to get into. But You turn it on and it goes right back. Weak restaurant closes - new one opens. Retail wasn't gonna make it past Christmas anyway....Covid only killed the weak.

Now Trump, is a very smart, but limited entity. He is not Superman. The Fed could give a flip what he does. And if he is smart, he will stay out of their way. Business is business.

[aerynsun]

The depression started in the 1970s as workers began to lose wealth.

https://www.ucg.org/the-good-news/the-l ... rica-today

https://www.nairaland.com/1494266/fate- ... john-glubb

A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy.

[aerynsun]

I agree with David that there will not be a depression or a recession. The economy will rebound like a natural disaster happened.
I would hope that we would go back to a gold standard. However, I don't see it in the cards.

My city and county are closed down. However. In anticipation of some opening next week, the morons have already taken to the road - speeding/running red lights. Traffic is near normal - freeways closing down because of accidents.

The people who have a life style wherein they voluntarily live pay check to pay check (we have to have {fill in the blank -cell phone, second car, Mexican vacation, music concert tickets]) will simply have more unpaid debt. The preppers will review their preps since January 2020 and adjust.

There will be phases to the decline. We are seeing them now:

1. Optimism - we are seeing that now as things open up - this should last until about July/Aug.
2. Second outbreak - increase in cases and China problems put fear back into people and worry about a second close down.
3. Election uncertainties - markets fear a Trump loss.
4. Pessimism - the shopping/going to restaurants plateau.
5. Employment goes up as reality of the new economy becomes real - workers across the economy get laid off - restaurant, offices, state gov't workers
6. Unemployment benefits expanded and extended for many months.