Home invasion

[David]

25 Surprising Home Invasion Robbery Statistics

https://brandongaille.com/24-surprising ... tatistics/

[Bob]

That article is a great example of utter and total BS with numbers that is so bogus my 16 year old could shoot more holes in it than a Stop Sign at a 4 way intersection has in Rural Alabama.

He managed to spew numbers that told you absolutely nothing but should make you scared to death of a home invasion.

[David]

Can you please provide the correct numbers then? Thank you.

[Bob]

I will break down the assumptions and inferences that they want you to make based on it. I'll do a little digging for the correct numbers. But like I said - it is not about the correct numbers. It is not about the "accuracy" of the numbers. It is about having the "right" number.

FYI - This is why Corona is able to be the mess it is. The majority of America is completely unable to identify either of those things.

[David]

I will break down the assumptions and inferences that they want you to make based on it. I'll do a little digging for the correct numbers. But like I said - it is not about the correct numbers. It is not about the "accuracy" of the numbers. It is about having the "right" number.

FYI - This is why Corona is able to be the mess it is. The majority of America is completely unable to identify either of those things.

We eagerly await the 'right' numbers with rapt anticipation.

[Bob]

Well... here we go! Right out of the gate, I call the guy Full of $#^%

First - the guy makes a TOTALLY salacious appeal to your fear: In an article titled "Surprising Home Invasion Robbery Statistics he launches with "One property crime every three seconds." he talks about home invasions in the intro paragraph.

So let's look at what the FBI calls a Property crime...

Definition
In the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, property crime includes the offenses of burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson. The object of the theft-type offenses is the taking of money or property, but there is no force or threat of force against the victims.

So he is a flat out manipulating liar. He took a topic "Home Invasion" - scary thing, and then took a completely inappropriate number, "Property Crime" and then starts talking about Home Invasion Robbery like they are the same thing. He is attempting to get you to conflate a Home Invasion with "One happens every three seconds."

That's not an exaggeration, that's not a "part truth". That is a lie. He is a liar. If he isn't - he is too stupid to write about this. And we should ALL be smart enough and suspicious enough to ignore him based on that alone.

[fishingjeff]

Bob, you forgot the "NUMBERS'. I'm upwind, so take off your shoes and go for it.

[Bob]

OK - next up!

He said.....

• 38% of the assaults that are reported to law enforcement officials happen during the events of a home invasion.
  The percentage of rapes that occur because of a home invasion incident: 60%.

According to a United States Department of Justice report:
38% of assaults & 60% of rapes occur during home invasions.

This is a subtle but VERY important difference. He wants you to think that a Home Invasion occurs ever three minutes. And in these "Home Invasions" (which actually includes car thefts, picked pockets, and stealing you wallet off the table at a restaurant, and burning down an abandoned house.....

he is trying to make you think that people invade your home, and then BECAUSE you are there - they assault and/or rape you.

An estimated 3.7 million household burglaries occurred each
year on average from 2003 to 2007. In about 28% of these
burglaries, a household member was present during the burglary.
In 7% of all household burglaries, a household member
experienced some form of violent victimization (figure 1).

Reality - people do NOT just go around "Invading Homes" and then if you 'happen to be there' you get assaulted/raped.

Additionally, Home Invasion is very broadly defined. Refusing to leave when asked is defined in many states as a home invasion. Why is that important? It means you really didn't break into someones home.

Rape: The victim is selected and chosen, and then the home is broken into for the purpose of rape. People do not "break into a home when people are there" and go all rapey. (And don't BUT IT DOES HAPPEN!. Yes it does. But that is not the majority of situations and has nothing to do with the original "Property Crime statistic. Rape is NOT a property crime. See the unbelievable lie there?)

Next - and this is REALLY important:

*Offenders were known to their victims in 65% of violent
burglaries; offenders were strangers in 28%.

So what does that tell you? It tells you that there are likely a few things going on:
#1 These are Crime on Crime statistics. Only 28% of these events are actually you sitting there watching TV and BAM - the door crashes in.
- These are crimes where people with bad drug deals, thefts of already stolen merchandise, gang vendettas etc. are occurring.

But he is TRYING to get you to believe that roughly:
1 in every 1000 people are the victim of a home invasion
And that you will be raped in 6/10 of those - just because people broke in.
That means in my little Safety Harbor, there should be 18 this year, or one every month, with 2 every other month.
And that also means that there should have been 9 Rapes from those alone. There haven't been more than 7 in Safety Harbor in over a decade.

OK - lets say EVERY Burglary was a "Home Invasion" Now at 25 of those in 2018 - I'm expecting 15 rapes, because 60% of Home invasions result in Rape because invading a home makes you Rapey.

Fine - lets roll with Assault alone. Lets call it .40 of those occur because of Home Invasion, which we are GENEROUSLY considering a Burglary. There were 15 of those. .4 x 25 = so I expect 10. Hmmm. I guess our "Home Invaders are the polite kind. And the flip side of that is that there were only 5 assaults anywhere else for any other reason. That would include Domestic violence where a spouse was not asked to leave.

Now - this is just my little town of 18,000 people. But that is a freaking lot of people. And this place runs the demographic from Mansions to trailer parks. Noted that Safety Harbor is generally expensive and low crime....

Again - this guy is TRYING to make you afraid of things that quite honestly don't happen. And he is trying to make you think they happen for reason other than why they really happen.

Lets talk more about these Home Invasion Rapes.

In 2018, there were ~730k Rape/Sexual Assaults. That means at 535k minutes a year, there is a rape every 45 seconds. If 60% of those occur BECAUSE of home invasions, then there must either be a LOT more Home Invasions than we know, or there are actually way less Rapes.

[Bob]

Bob, you forgot the "NUMBERS'. I'm upwind, so take off your shoes and go for it.

Jeff - There are no numbers needed. He is trying to get you to think a Home Invasion happens every 3 minutes. BS, plain and simple. He lied. Period.

Then, when we look at actual statistics related to who did "burglaries while people were home" we see that most people knew each other.

This is classic fear mongering. He wants you to believe that every three minutes people are breaking into your home, that they then beat you, and more likely rape you. Totally false.

The guy is full of crap. But lets look further at his stuff....

[Bob]

He goes on to site a lot of stuff in and out of context....many from the DOJ study, and many with slightly changed words for effect

But here is the clincher:

The guy IS A SALESMAN HAWKING LOCKS AND COOKIES FOR LOCK ADVERTISEMENTS!!!!!!