Survival and Emergency Preparedness

Stagflation = high inflation + high unemployment

https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/601 ... mic-hurdle

My thoughts:
Across the board prices that go into mfg have been increasing.
1. A lot of business closed during the pandemic - fewer places to find work
2. Open businesses can't find workers because of gov't checks
They will need to pay more for workers
They are paying more for their goods
They will raise prices.
Customers will return for a short time because of the novelty of being free.
Customers will find cheaper places for the things they need (e.g. food - cut amount of meat they buy or cheaper cuts)
For non essential thing they will stop buying.
3. Businesses close

The real fear - gov't will see this as a result of the pandemic and say it is not the workers fault. Gov't will institute the guaranteed minimum income.
It will work until 'other people's money' is gone.

I have a small pension that is not tied to the cpi - It lost 37% in purchasing power since I started it.

My thoughts:
Across the board prices that go into mfg have been increasing.
1. A lot of business closed during the pandemic - fewer places to find work
Agree

2. Open businesses can't find workers because of gov't checks
They will need to pay more for workers
They are paying more for their goods
They will raise prices.
Agree.

Customers will return for a short time because of the novelty of being free.
Agree that novelty of being free will spur spending

Customers will find cheaper places for the things they need (e.g. food - cut amount of meat they buy or cheaper cuts)
No. Based upon my farming background, disagree. I would always buy "old, discounted meat". Those items are actually aged. Still good. Disappeared during the shutdown. Have re-appeared when people have more goods to buy at the grocery. The discounted old meat is showing up again.

For non essential thing they will stop buying.
Disagree Most people consider going to Disneyland/Disneyworld, buying a new car as "essential". The used prices on cars went up because: a. people neglected repairs during the shutdown (I did major repairs on a 16 year old car). On my block of 11 houses market valued at over $1.5 million, I count 3 cars not reregistered. A few blocks away, it is two cars at one location). b. the Fed expanded the term of loans that require Fed approval.

3. Businesses close
Agree. They are still closing. Small businesses work on small margins. Many continue to close, permanently.


I have a small pension that is not tied to the cpi - It lost 37% in purchasing power since I started it.
The government routinely changes it definition of Consumer Price Index. I recall that it started doing this in the 1970s. The CPI for social security has also been re-defined and is not the CPI used in real estate rent increases. Games, games , games. The government plays games and speaks about "core CPI" as well.

What is happening is almost traditional.
1. the people who save, continue to save.
2. the people who focus on monthly payments, continue to focus on monthly payments,
3. the people who want to impress the neighbors continue to buy cars that are expensive to maintain.

What is changed is an increased distrust of federal and state officials/programs. That distrust was well earned over the last couple of years.
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bdcochran wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 4:24 pm

Customers will find cheaper places for the things they need (e.g. food - cut amount of meat they buy or cheaper cuts)
No. Based upon my farming background, disagree. I would always buy "old, discounted meat". Those items are actually aged. Still good. Disappeared during the shutdown. Have re-appeared when people have more goods to buy at the grocery. The discounted old meat is showing up again.

For non essential thing they will stop buying.
Disagree Most people consider going to Disneyland/Disneyworld, buying a new car as "essential". The used prices on cars went up because: a. people neglected repairs during the shutdown (I did major repairs on a 16 year old car). On my block of 11 houses market valued at over $1.5 million, I count 3 cars not reregistered. A few blocks away, it is two cars at one location). b. the Fed expanded the term of loans that require Fed approval.

Good points I really don't eat that much meat. As I get older I just can't eat as much and the weight is hard to keep off.

Your housing situation is interesting. Unregistered cars would indicate those people have money problems.

Also, I forgot to mention that the prohibition on foreclosing and not throwing out people who can't pay is ending soon. That should be interesting.

In my areas, the local large city is attempting to bribe the landlords. If the landlord will take a cut in what is owed, the city will throw some money at the landlord. Of course, this requires the tenant to come up with money - won't happen. Just academic pie in the sky.

Thee will be a lot of ejections, not quite so many foreclosures. The potential foreclosures are getting some money from the feds. You can apply for an extended term on the house loan