Re: The media needs to go.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 8:15 pm
The Bulgarian Lottery pulled the same number six times in a row once.
How are such coincidences possible? In The Improbability Principle, statistician David J. Hand delves into extreme unlikelihoods, from duplicate lottery results to global financial meltdowns. “We should expect the unexpected,” he explains, in this lucid overview of the mathematics of chance and the psychological phenomena that can make probability seem counter-intuitive to so many.
Understanding the Bulgarian lottery coincidence, it turns out, is relatively straightforward. Although the odds of two specific draws matching is 1 in 13,983,816, the chance of any two draws matching increases with the number of draws, and reaches a probability of greater than 50 per cent by the 4404th round.
From the Improbability Principle. Good book.
How are such coincidences possible? In The Improbability Principle, statistician David J. Hand delves into extreme unlikelihoods, from duplicate lottery results to global financial meltdowns. “We should expect the unexpected,” he explains, in this lucid overview of the mathematics of chance and the psychological phenomena that can make probability seem counter-intuitive to so many.
Understanding the Bulgarian lottery coincidence, it turns out, is relatively straightforward. Although the odds of two specific draws matching is 1 in 13,983,816, the chance of any two draws matching increases with the number of draws, and reaches a probability of greater than 50 per cent by the 4404th round.
From the Improbability Principle. Good book.
