"Be careful out there"

[aerynsun]

Always prudent to be situationally aware and have a firearm or defensive tool available.

https://www.ajc.com/news/crime--law/man ... Q74ZIeOOL/

https://abcnews.go.com/US/caught-camera ... d=41937412

This is worse then the 70s/80s crime wave. Back then people at least wanted something from you. Now they attack for sometimes unknow reasons. The cities are going to get worse. The criminals are emboldened and they don't fear prison or the police. The real bad times will begin when you see arson rising.

[David]

‘Unbelievable:’ Children, 12 and 14, use AK-47, other guns in shooting rampage on Volusia deputies

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local ... ia-county/

[Bob]

This is not worse than the 70's/80's. You need to get a little perspective. Crime - especially murders for any reason, are ridiculously low compared to those decades.

The guy had an AK, A 12g, and a handgun and 200 rounds. Kudos to him for being prepared!

As for the kids, foster care. Can't wait to hear what a horrible life they had.

Meanwhile, I have been taking the dog out while sporting my .357, because we had a bear in the park! Indeed - lets be careful out there.

[aerynsun]

This is not worse than the 70's/80's. You need to get a little perspective. Crime - especially murders for any reason, are ridiculously low compared to those decades.

The nature of the murders have changed. Do some research. What you will find is that before the 70s murder solve rates were high because more often the murderer was in the social circle of the person killed.

In the 70s/80s murders/crime rose due to the drug trade and solve rates declined.

No one here said the numbers then and now are the same.

[bdcochran]

I try to give another perspective based upon what my father told me and the effect of modern technology.

Grandpa was the sheriff of the parish. Every weekend in a small town of 5,000, there was a murder - usually domestic or at a local bar. No one got upset in Bangor, Maine or Houston, Texas. There was no television, no internet, little radio broadcasting, and the source of news was the daily published newspaper which nearly doesn't exist anymore. The population of the USA was less than a third of what it is today.

When I got up this morning, I weighed myself, took my blood pressure, and recorded my pulse rate. I came to this website and looked for useful survival information. I did not turn on the television for "BREAKING NEWS" or the latest car chase on the freeway.

"Be careful out there". There is a reason that in 60 years of driving, I haven't had a chargeable accident.It is called situational awareness. I also drop my Spyderco Endura in a pocket even when I go for the daily walk around the block.

[David]

Man accused of shooting jogger, hitting another with car denied bond

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlant ... BGZIIX3TM/

[Bob]

This is not worse than the 70's/80's. You need to get a little perspective. Crime - especially murders for any reason, are ridiculously low compared to those decades.

The nature of the murders have changed. Do some research. What you will find is that before the 70s murder solve rates were high because more often the murderer was in the social circle of the person killed.

In the 70s/80s murders/crime rose due to the drug trade and solve rates declined.

No one here said the numbers then and now are the same.

So what you are saying is that most murders in the 70's etc were in a known social circle, and that you had nearly zero chance of being randomly killed?

So now, social murders are way down, but random killing are 2-3x times as likely? So 2-3 times nearly zero is still nearly zero, at least when I learned math.

A great example of "lying with statistics" or in this case lack thereof.

Going from .001 to .003 means a 300% increase!!! It means the rate Tripled!!!! It also means I'm still more worried about cramping up and drowning if I jump in the pool less than 30 minutes after eating more than that.

You posted one example of a crime - with absolutely no evidence of anything else and made a blanket statement on the nature of crime with no evidence. To a group of people who like guns and believe in self-defense.

A murder is simply not a murder. As I teach people, Stratify Stratify, Stratify. break the data down. Then you can really see what is, and is not going on.

You are trying to tell me that no one ever randomly killed anyone in the past, or that the numbers have substantially changed, to the point where I need to engage in more worry about it than in the past. To which I say - show me!

I'm totally willing to change my mind. Fear satement from anyone a) Rarely are true and b) Will always be questioned by me.

Someone has to keep you guys honest!!!

Prove you point - show me the numbers and explain them. I just made those up, to illustrate the point.

[aerynsun]

and that you had nearly zero chance of being randomly killed?

Please provide me with my post where I wrote that.
Thanks

[Bob]

Is your point not that random shooting have increased massively since the 70's? Where is YOUR proof. Let's don't spin this like a bottle at a middle school party...

You know what I mean - and I know what you mean. I'm saying that you assertion is false. Murder is down SO much that even if random starnger murder is up, it is still ridiculously low because ALL murders are down.

example:

70's
100,000 people
Murder = 1000
Aquaintance Murder = 80% Stranger = 20%

2020's
100,000 people
Murder = 200
Aquaintance Murder = 40% Stranger = 60%

70's = .001 chance of being murdered (per 100k) and a .0002 chance of it being a stranger

2020's = .0002 of being murdered and a .00012 of being murdered by a stranger

So while the % went up 3x from 20% to 60%, the actual probability went DOWN. So - no real need to duck and cover while mowing the lawn.

Again - you watched a video DESIGNED to stir you up and be afraid, and it presented zero information in any sort of context. And you are passing it along as a fact - and now you are upset because I just showed you you got duped.

But - I'll gladly change my mind. Show me the real data/statistics on this.

[Bob]

Here is a quick look. From 1990 on - it has dropped nearly in half according to this. And it appears you believe the 70/80's were even worse.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/U ... icide-rate

And I'll ask this: Are two drug gangs shooting it out with each other, who don't really know each other acquaintances or stranger? More importantly - what do those numbers look like if I break it out crime-on-crime murders vs random innocent victim (acquaintance or not?)

Just asking the questions. US Schools have made people almost brain dead to basic logic and reasoning. Because you know - the media wouldn't lie....