Ukraine - what's the outlook here?

[Bob]

First - I could care less if Russia takes back Ukraine.

I think it is the classic American "out of control" Government mistake.

Ukraine went solo with fall of USSR.
A bunch of wing nuts got in charge
A lot of people said "We prefer to be part of Russia"
Civil war ensues
We of course back the "Favorable to Nato" group - and sell them weapons
- Favorable to NAto group ignores cease fire...naturally.
Putin puts troops on the Border because "Civil war" is heating up and going to spill over
We naturally have media showing nothing about any of this except "Russia is massing troops to invade!"

And my final comment - Russia take back Ukraine - so what? Not my pig, not my farm, not my concern, and other than Biden's kid losing his board position...whatever. Ukraine was part of Russia my entire life and guess what? The temperature of the water in my pool didn't change one degree...

But since we are butt-hurt about losing a war to a bunch of illiterate sheep herding poppy farmwrs afet 20 years, we have to take it out on someone.

Personally, I think the US has one of the best military's in the world. And as long as we don't go at it with Russia or China - we'll feel that way for a long time. Unfortunately, they are controlled by greedy evil idiots.

But that is my opinion. What say you all?

[David]

The whole thing is a false flag by the Deep State. They want/need another war to keep $ flowing into their coffers. A war would make a good distraction for the failed Pretender-In-Chief.

[Bob]

I don't know about False Flag, however you care to define that, but our entire Government is definitely addicted to war money.

There is nearly 20 years of Congress that have been the beneficiaries of Military industry lobbyists dollars and donations, let alone board memberships and such.

If anything Biden's ONE good move was to shut down Afghanistan, IMO. But as we saw with Trump, the Machine will be fed and does not like it when food is witheld. Gotta get the big dollar donations from someone....with names like BAE, Lockheed, etc....

[bdcochran]

I will explain what is going on. In or about 2014 there were a number accords. The parties are in phase 2. Russia wants a series of autonomous republics. This would a politically weakened country with reduced federal or central control. The western powers want a unitary country with strong federal powers. The can was kicked down the road to this point. Now the 'accords' need to be implemented.

Yugoslovia was an association of 5 republics. The way Tito held it together was that the top jobs (top spoils) routinely and predictably rotated between the head corrupt controllers in each republic. After he died, the rotation was not continued.

The invasion, if any, would be threefold. No. one in the south to take control of the areas bordering on the Black Sea. No. 2 in the central part of the border, and delayed to learn if the Ukraine was coming to the table. The last part would be encirclement and siege of Kieve - trying to avoid urban fighting.

It is estimated that it would take 325,000 Russian troops to secure the country and only about 1/3 that number is now deployed.

The Kiev government does not need aircraft, sophisticated weapons. Here is why.
1. think of the price of one American jet with current avionics and supply logistics.
2. think of the price of one current Russian tank.
3. think of the price of Chinese made small drones used by ISIS in Syria which had small explosive charges on board. Less than #4k
4. think of the price of an ak47 and 1000 rounds of ammo
5. think of the price of one Javelin tank killer. $110k

Now think about:
1. the cost of a Javelin missile vs. one Russian tank
2. think of how many Javelins can be purchased and distributed for the price of just 1 F16.
3. think about why Iran, in just one shipment that was captured, was sending 33,000 ak47s to Yemen.
4. think about the cost of a jeep like vehicle vs. the cost of a 2 seater ultra lite ($10,000). The ultra light can hug the earth, go 20 miles without refueling, use regular gas, has a parachute in the frame, can take two soldiers or one soldier and a lot of supplies, does not need a road.

You start understanding that with the time available, you can train a large civilian force. When the Chinese invaded Vietnam in 1979, they had over 30,000 casualties in 6 weeks. The main Vietnamese Army was off in Cambodia!

Now for the trump card. In 2014, the US declined to give real time satellite pictures to the Ukrainians. This next time, it will give the real time pictures.

[JDH]

A drummed up crises attempting to show Joe as the Great diplomat who saved the world from WWIII. Unfortunately, for him, Macron is upstaging him.

[bdcochran]

1. Yes, JOH, it is a drummed up crises. I have described the underlying situation. It is called the Minsk 2 Accords. Without all the testosterone people usually want to express.
2. I speak French and follow French politics. Mr. Macron is upstaging Mr. Biden. However, Mr. Macron is not, did not and will never extract any concessions. He is like a gadfly. Very unpopular in France right now.

Russia is a hodge podge of fiefdoms. If you have followed Chechnya, the former components of the Soviet Union, Dagestan, you realize that the geographical areas are really controlled by warlords. There has been or have been open civil wars - armed conflicts, summary executions. If Russia really does invade the Ukraine, it weakens itself internally. When people want to assert that China and Russia are buddy buddy, remember they were fighting just 20 years ago.

Mr. Putin has done a fine balancing act to stay in power for a couple of decades. A unitary Ukraine is less desirable than a fragmented Ukraine. The Ukraine, as a political entity and an ethnic entity, was simply a matter of drawing a line on the map when there was a Soviet Union. To the extent that the Ukraine is westernized, becomes more prosperous, it would be threatening to his support in Russia. He comes out ahead if the Ukraine is split up into quasi-independent political units that are poor and rely upon Russian largess.

[aerynsun]

Russia take back Ukraine - so what? Not my pig, not my farm, not my concern, and other than Biden's kid losing his board position...whatever. Ukraine was part of Russia my entire life and guess what? The temperature of the water in my pool didn't change one degree...

Well, get out of the pool and off the farm and look at the price of oil, propane and gasoline.


I generally, agree that this is a European problem and the Western European nations should deal with it. But as usual, the USA is sending a disportionate amount of aid and military into the region.

This is what happens when you have a geriatric president.

[bdcochran]

I explained the underlying situation.

Now I will give you a personal outlook.
1. your physical health, emotional health, skill level and equipment is more critical to your survival than agonizing over morons who threaten each other with physical or financial destruction.
2. if you are prepared to survive in your circle for 6 months based upon the resources you have available, your chances of survival are much better than that of the average Joe or Jill.
3. the probability is that your personal health care, exercise or lack thereof is more likely to get you killed.

All of my relatives in a small farming village in the Ukraine were killed. So, I don't have a dog in the fight. If you have enough warning and can get out of the way, that is best. However, that is not always possible. My dad was in the USN and visited Germany in or about 1938. I asked if people didn't know war was coming and why they weren't prepared. My dad's response was simple. Everyone knew war was coming. They just didn't know when and who would be on each side.

[Bmyers]

Many say this is the start of World War III. With Russia's recent invasion, it once again caused me to look at the history books. 
Looking at World War II, we will see if there are any similarities. Many will tell you that Poland was the first country invade by Germany and when this occurred, Britain and France went to war with Germany.

Yet, this is not correct. Germany's first take of land was the return of the ethnic German population in Czechoslovakia/Austria in an annexation back to the motherland. This was prohibited by the Treaty of Versailles. Yet, the powers to be decided it was okay and gave into Germany in September of 1938 and agreed to the Munich Pact for the promise of peace. A year later we have Germany invading Poland which is considered by most historians as the official start of WWII because Britain and France formally went to war with Germany (Does this sound at all like today's issue with Russia invading Ukraine?) 

Now let's look at modern day events. Russia, invaded Crimea in March of 2014 in an annexation back to the motherland. Various countries put sanctions in place, but nothing of great substance just as in WWII when Germany annexed Austria.  
Russia then decides that they want Ukraine even though Russia and the US, UK had all agreed in the Budapest Memorandum (signed in 1994) that if Ukraine would give up their nuclear weapons that Russia would not invade them and that the US and UK would defend them.
So, here we are today, with the traditional allied powers doing what they normally do first, sanctions. Just as Germany did, violated the agreement with the nations and did what they wanted to do, we see Russia doing the same. Most US citizens and the world as a whole probably have never heard of the Budapest Memorandum nor the commitment that Western nations made to Ukraine to protect them if they gave up the nuclear weapons (realizing at the time Ukraine was the third largest nuclear power in the world. 

So, now we have sleepy Joe at the helm of the ship and the world waiting for the US to take the lead. 
History tells us that poor leadership can get you into a world of hurt, look at what happened to France during WWII which had a larger army and more tanks than Germany, but failed with leadership. 

It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming days and weeks. If we follow the historical path of WWII, we will see a large uprising in the US for non-intervention with the US military. Parents did not want to send their kids off to fight in a war that had nothing directly to do with the US, even though we had signed the treaties. I can't say I would blame any parent that felt that away then or now.

As we continue to look at history, President Roosevelt wanted to get involved in the war (WWII), but the political forces were against him, till Japan attacked Pearl Harbor giving President Roosevelt the political pull he needed to join the war against the Axis.
So, are we facing WWIII? Unfortunately my crystal ball is broken. Looking at history, many of the pieces are lining up. Looking at the Bible, the end times are not going to be pleasant. 

Yet even with all the information that we know, only God knows the future.

[David]

Wag the Dog....