Survival and Emergency Preparedness

What say you? Is this going to stay around?

How long?
How low will it return to?
Will it ?

Are you buying ammo?
Where?!?!?!?!

It'll go back down. All the new gun buyers are not going to become regular shooters. They are getting it out of their system and then the guns go in the closet.
The shortage will probably last through 2021. The craziness of the last year will take a while to recover from.
Once shelves are stocked and warehouses are full, the price will go back under $10/box.
Anyone buying ammo at these prices is an idiot.

Last year I predicted that things would return to normal around the second quarter of this year. That was probably an optimistic appraisal unfortunately. Hopefully later in the year? Gun sales were down in February compared with the previous months but still up compared with the previous February. We'll have to see what this month is like. Perhaps the market is reaching it's saturation point. While that won't have an immediate effect on ammo, it's an indicator that it's going in the right direction.

I feel comfortable enough with my inventory that I shot at last weeks Outlaw match with my son. And may shoot again at a CCW match at the end of May. Perhaps by that time we'll see a clearer picture.

But no, I'm not buying any ammo right now. I haven't bought any since around the summer of last year and that was 45acp because I had just picked up my USP 45 around that time so I wanted to get a small stash for it. And it was only slightly elevated in price at that time. So I haven't even looked at prices online or in a shop since last year. The private market in our area is still off the chart stupid. People are wanting 80 cents to a buck a round of 9mm FMJ. And folks are still trying to get twice what their Glock is worth. Is anyone buying? Well, not me.

Ronin.45 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 10:50 am
Once shelves are stocked and warehouses are full, the price will go back under $10/box.

I see a drop....but not THAT much! ~ 15 to 17 for 50 was pretty stable before Covid.

Bob wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:44 pm

Ronin.45 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 10:50 am
Once shelves are stocked and warehouses are full, the price will go back under $10/box.

I see a drop....but not THAT much! ~ 15 to 17 for 50 was pretty stable before Covid.

Are we talking 9mm? Anyplace around here at $15-17/box would have had to dust it off every month because it certainly wasn't getting purchased.
I was buying 9mm at $8.25 a box until Covid hit. Single box, shop prices were $9.99-11.99, but shooters don't buy that way.

Bob wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:44 pm

Ronin.45 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 10:50 am
Once shelves are stocked and warehouses are full, the price will go back under $10/box.

I see a drop....but not THAT much! ~ 15 to 17 for 50 was pretty stable before Covid.

Where were you buying ammo before? Where ever it was you were getting fleeced. I normally purchased at WM when they were selling with normal prices on 9mm being about 8ish per box. It will return to sub $10 at some point. When the panic buying is over you’ll have a period where the hoarders stock up and then it will return.

At Walmart. when was the last time you bought 9mm in a store, 2005?

I was taking inventory of my 45acp ammo a few weeks ago. My 2 1911s are on the back burner because they both need some work (long story, won't bore you with those details.) I realized I had 3 full 20 round boxes of Hornady TAP. I had recently become aware that a friendly acquaintance had settled on a 1911 for his preferred carry. I offered him the ammo at $25 per box which was probably close to what I paid for it. He snatched it up. When he came by to pick it up we commiserated about the unavailability of ammo and its exorbitant cost when you could find it. Thus we did what everybody does-- we talked about it but didn't fix it. This is a waiting game right now. Hopefully, this too shall pass. If I do any extensive shooting right now it'll be .22 rimfire. I have a very comfortable inventory there.

ratf51 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:40 am I was taking inventory of my 45acp ammo a few weeks ago. My 2 1911s are on the back burner because they both need some work (long story, won't bore you with those details.) I realized I had 3 full 20 round boxes of Hornady TAP. I had recently become aware that a friendly acquaintance had settled on a 1911 for his preferred carry. I offered him the ammo at $25 per box which was probably close to what I paid for it. He snatched it up. When he came by to pick it up we commiserated about the unavailability of ammo and its exorbitant cost when you could find it. Thus we did what everybody does-- we talked about it but didn't fix it. This is a waiting game right now. Hopefully, this too shall pass. If I do any extensive shooting right now it'll be .22 rimfire. I have a very comfortable inventory there.

Some of us are doing something about it. NOT BUYING AMMO. That's the best way to bring prices down. Your friend buying off of you instead of overpaying online helps too.
These idiots paying $35-50 a box to plink are causing the problem. If we all quit shooting for a month or two there'd be full shelves again. Full shelves would relax the hoarders which would ease demand greatly so actual shooters could return to normal.

I am not buying any right now as well. A year ago I was advising close friends to make sure they had ammo. With a couple of exceptions that was just preaching to the choir. Right now I am in conservation mode re: ammo. My firearms expenditures of late have been focused on improving functional kit (lights, appropriate holsters, spare mags). Next phase is getting my 1911s up to par (hammer follow on one, very loose front sight on the other).

I don't know if ammo prices will come back down to pre-2020 levels. They will eventually, in time, come down but I believe that a new normal will be prices a bit higher than of old.