Survival and Emergency Preparedness

So pre-panic the 9mm was pretty much the top dog in popular service calibers. The 40 S&W had seen a decline in popularity due to the FBI switch (which I have always maintained was not wise for people to emulate). The 45acp was still hanging in there. The 10mm and 357sig were popular niche calibers but not really that main stream. And for the most part rounds like 38 Super and 45 GAP were all but forgotten by the masses.

With the panic however we've seen 9mm go from an increase of $5 a box to some folks wanting $1.50 a round at some gun shows and on Armslist and other sites. May as well have gold bullets. And of course it has become more difficult in a lot of locations to even buy 9mm and when it does appear it sells out quickly. The other service calibers have been effected but not to the extent and not as fast. When 9mm was getting more difficult to find I was still finding 40 S&W and 357sig. I picked up a box of 45acp at a local shop and he had plenty on the shelf. I haven't checked in the last couple of months because I'm fine with what I have but it seems like 10mm and 357sig was still available and the prices were fairly around the norm. And conversations about calibers like GAP and Super have resurfaced.

I started to wonder about this about 6 months ago. Pre-panic 40 S&W platforms just weren't moving all that well. Those that understood the ebb and flow of things knew they could pick up new 40 S&W pistols for a song and trade-ins for a steal. Some shops had 40's sitting on the shelf collecting dust. Into the panic and 40's are flying off the shelf like any/everything else. On AL I've seen 40 models that a year ago you probably would have had a hard time selling at giveaway prices now selling for more than top dollar.

So what I'm wondering is if this panic will elevate some of these less often bought calibers up a notch or two in popularity in the mass consciousness? Will it breath a little new life into 45 GAP? Will folks rediscover 38 Super? Will folks start to realize that while 9mm is a great caliber it's also the first to get hit with price increases and availability issues? Will folks start to think that maybe it's a good idea to diversify a bit into less popular calibers? I'm not suggesting that 45 GAP is going to suddenly surge to the #1 spot on the flavor-of-the-month chart for calibers. But will a lot more folks start to take interest in it and other calibers that they may normally not have looked sideways at? Or will there be a glut of new/used pistols on the market next year after things return to normal? I suspect that will happen to an extent but also that many folks will figure out it's a good idea to hang on to that pistol they just bought.

On the flip side, calibers like 357sig and 10mm while popular are still pretty much niche rounds. Even more so, rounds like GAP and Super are even harder to find, more expensive when you do and lack the variety of the other calibers. Will ammo companies start to pump them out in greater numbers making them more available, perhaps less expensive and even offer some additional variety? They would have to, imo, if any of them are to see an increase in interest/popularity.

It will be interesting to see if things simply return to normal or if there is a bit of a shift in the ammo world and what folks are interested in.

Certainly from a prepping perspective it makes sense, imo, to be able to access a variety of sources and calibers in such a situation. Most aren't preppers of course so they will be guided by other things.

For me the long term solution has always been to reload my own ammo. I've narrowed my calibers down to just few in handguns and rifles and I load each of those calibers except 32 ACP, 380ACP and 22lr. I've been hoarding reloading components for 30 years so I have pretty good stock of everything on hand. In past few months I've loaded over 4,000 rounds in 38 Special, 357 mag, 45 ACP and 45 Colt. I have not had to reload 9mm as I still have large stock of cheap ammo I purchased when Walmart was getting out of that market. I also have not had to reload .223/5.56 or 7.62x39 yet as I still have plenty of surplus ammo I purchased 15+ years ago from Century Arms, Ammo Man, etc.
If this ammo shortage continues for another year or more I expect I'll load up everything I have in all calibers which should last me a dozen years of shooting.

I load mostly what I shoot all the time.
In the past it didn't pay to load 9mm as it was close to the break even point.... load it for .14 or buy for .16
Now it is much different... but if you don't have the components, it's to late to start now.

But , I do store enough for now and can wait till prices come back to normal.

Buying less popular ammo is a short term solution at best. As you noticed, initially you could find .40/357sig/10mm after 9 was sold out, but once the initial supply is diminished it will be just as hard to get or harder. When ammo companies spool up additional lines, they will focus much more heavily on 9mm. It's possible that they won't make any of some of those cartridges to free up space for more popular calibers.
If someone was wanting to prepare for the next shortage, they could go about it in different ways. Buy a new gun in a different caliber they hope will be available or spend that same amount on ammo in their primary caliber.
For a baseline, let's say someone bought a used Glock 22 for $400 to have a second caliber gun.
They also picked up a handful of magazines and upgrade parts like most of us do. Another $100. Now a few months into a shortage, all ammo is scarce and it sits in the safe next to their other useless guns.
Now, let's take a different approach. The guy takes that same $500 and buys 2500rds of 9mm(approximate pre-covid price). He sticks that ammo in the bottom of his safe or under the bed and ignores it. He goes about his normal routine until a few months into a shortage. His normal stock of ammo is running low so he grabs a case out of the secret stash and continues as normal. Maybe he slows down a little, but never has to stop shooting.

I think there is validity in having platforms capable of shooting multiple calibers. This has been one of my approaches with the Glock 22, HK USPc and HK P2000.