Coronavirus
Re: Coronavirus
It was interesting talk. Lasted an hour. Lots of questions, which I couldn't give definitive answers to, but gave answers based on history and tried to help the group understand that a little preparation know can make their lives easier if things go sideways later.
Re: Coronavirus
Good news:
• Started field trials on an experimental antiviral drug here in the US on a patient that was infected on the cruise ship.
Interesting news:
• Japan is closing all schools for a month
Bad news:
• Japan had its first case of a person listed as cured showing back up at the hospital re-infected and having to be admitted; unsure if that means the virus was hiding in the person’s body, unsure that if the person was listed as cured if she could still spread the virus when she had been discharged; they are re-evaluating everyone that they have listed as cured and hope the virus isn’t acting like anthrax
• US had its first confirmed case of COVID-19 from an unknown origin; this case is in California; reason this is significant, it means that the virus is spreading in the community on its own, which is the first step for an epidemic; as long as you know the source of the infection you have a chance to control it, without knowing the source, the next step is epidemic.
• Started field trials on an experimental antiviral drug here in the US on a patient that was infected on the cruise ship.
Interesting news:
• Japan is closing all schools for a month
Bad news:
• Japan had its first case of a person listed as cured showing back up at the hospital re-infected and having to be admitted; unsure if that means the virus was hiding in the person’s body, unsure that if the person was listed as cured if she could still spread the virus when she had been discharged; they are re-evaluating everyone that they have listed as cured and hope the virus isn’t acting like anthrax
• US had its first confirmed case of COVID-19 from an unknown origin; this case is in California; reason this is significant, it means that the virus is spreading in the community on its own, which is the first step for an epidemic; as long as you know the source of the infection you have a chance to control it, without knowing the source, the next step is epidemic.
Re: Coronavirus
Closing schools for a month will not help. Staying in your home for a month might. But again - almost no one is prepared to stay at home for a month, and almost everyone would need to. A
And controlling this is like trying to control the flu. You really can't. nd this is why we get the flu also. Only thing is the flu is more or less known, and we can prevent/treat significantly better. If you just imagine this as a new strain of flu - you'll know 90% more than everyone about it.
The CDC is wonderful, but these guys really communicate poorly. To be fair - they are a bunch of PhD-MDs that are very very comfortable with things about biology and statistics that most are not. Also - they are very careful about liability. So in the end, if they could translate what they know to useful info - Risk management cleanses everything they say into meaningless facts (unless you an infectious disease PhD-MD).
And the California case is good example of "horrible" but "true" facts. The virus did not "spread on it's own." It didn't jump on a plane, take a an Uber to someone's house, sneak in and up their nose. It was spread by contaminated individuals. They simply can't trace the path to any known location. That means someone got through. No surprise there.
And controlling this is like trying to control the flu. You really can't. nd this is why we get the flu also. Only thing is the flu is more or less known, and we can prevent/treat significantly better. If you just imagine this as a new strain of flu - you'll know 90% more than everyone about it.
The CDC is wonderful, but these guys really communicate poorly. To be fair - they are a bunch of PhD-MDs that are very very comfortable with things about biology and statistics that most are not. Also - they are very careful about liability. So in the end, if they could translate what they know to useful info - Risk management cleanses everything they say into meaningless facts (unless you an infectious disease PhD-MD).
And the California case is good example of "horrible" but "true" facts. The virus did not "spread on it's own." It didn't jump on a plane, take a an Uber to someone's house, sneak in and up their nose. It was spread by contaminated individuals. They simply can't trace the path to any known location. That means someone got through. No surprise there.
Re: Coronavirus
True fact just in:
N95 stop .3 micron germs
Corona = .15 microns
Thus an N95 is like wearing 50% coverage...
N95 stop .3 micron germs
Corona = .15 microns
Thus an N95 is like wearing 50% coverage...
Re: Coronavirus
https://www.foxnews.com/health/who-...h ... ossibility
"While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity; that means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease," Tedros said. "Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported COVID-19 cases have died; by comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1 percent of those infected."
"While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity; that means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease," Tedros said. "Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported COVID-19 cases have died; by comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1 percent of those infected."
Re: Coronavirus
That "Some will suffer sever". is key. They won't say this yet, because they do not know it.
Some will show NO symptoms - Asymptomatic. You have no idea how many people that is. They need to do mass testing.
Some will exhibit mild symptoms- looks like a cold, but is the flu
Others will have SIGNIFICANT symptoms - down/out but no need for hospital etc
And then there are those people they mention.
That is a great example of them being factual, but spinning the importance of their agency.
Some will show NO symptoms - Asymptomatic. You have no idea how many people that is. They need to do mass testing.
Some will exhibit mild symptoms- looks like a cold, but is the flu
Others will have SIGNIFICANT symptoms - down/out but no need for hospital etc
And then there are those people they mention.
That is a great example of them being factual, but spinning the importance of their agency.
Re: Coronavirus
So the questions become;
As far as question three above, we're chugging along as normal. We have a good supply of food and such but did pick up a few extra items today while shopping. Not so much in fear of the world ending, but with the realization that stores could be hit hard with increased panic buying. So we simply picked up a little extra on some items that will get used regardless of the outcome of world events.
We've always been good with hand washing and such. Increasing that a bit and wiping common things down in the house every couple of days (keyboard, handles, light switches etc) which is a good idea in general during flu season.
- How much impact will this virus cause worldwide?
- Will it become a true pandemic?
- What, if any, extra precautions are you taking?
As far as question three above, we're chugging along as normal. We have a good supply of food and such but did pick up a few extra items today while shopping. Not so much in fear of the world ending, but with the realization that stores could be hit hard with increased panic buying. So we simply picked up a little extra on some items that will get used regardless of the outcome of world events.
We've always been good with hand washing and such. Increasing that a bit and wiping common things down in the house every couple of days (keyboard, handles, light switches etc) which is a good idea in general during flu season.
A man cannot call himself peaceful if he is not capable of violence. If he's not capable of violence he isn't peaceful, he is harmless. There is a distinct difference.
Fate whispers to the warrior "You cannot weather this storm". The warrior replies, "I am the storm".
Fate whispers to the warrior "You cannot weather this storm". The warrior replies, "I am the storm".
Re: Coronavirus
Hopefully all this new awareness about hand washing and sanitizing will help cut down on the flu and other common illnesses. i.e. the ones we should be more worried about. The flu, upper respiratory infections, noro virus etc, are widespread and everywhere. Covid 19 is relatively contained and so far very limited in scope, at least in the US and most other countries.
Re: Coronavirus
There will be no world economic collapse. Extra-curricular flu-esque bug will come and go, causing the basic media blip and then on with the news cycle. You gotta stop watching those shows Dave...
Corona is a true Pandemic. It was a month ago. In two months the thing won't be able to live outdoors anyway. And Covid19 will not be contained. People were bringing it and spreading it for a month before you ever heard about it.
Corona is a true Pandemic. It was a month ago. In two months the thing won't be able to live outdoors anyway. And Covid19 will not be contained. People were bringing it and spreading it for a month before you ever heard about it.